Rhys Williams' Thursday Tips: 100/1 Thurles Pick

Racing analyst Rhys Williams has four picks lined up for Thursday's cards.

Williams has spent more than a decade in the sport, including a spell with At The Races and, more recently, a tipping role at Betfair, where his column returned a 31% ROI across four and a half years. His specialty is the bigger prices — the angles most punters miss.

To date his tips have brought back 494.48 points from 368.00 staked, a profit and loss record of +126.48 pts.

Below are his selections for today, priced at the latest odds available from the leading horse racing betting sites.

Play Stable Stars

12:41 Market Rasen: Zains Hope - 0.5pt Win @ 33/1

Three runners have the market to themselves in this maiden hurdle, but a pair of hurdling debutants could pose more of a threat than their odds imply.

Zains Hope first appeared in a Wetherby bumper last season and caught the eye behind a useful winner. He tracked the pace early, then lacked the gears to go with the leading duo turning for home and looked raw once pressure was applied.

He plugged on for fifth behind a smart type, and the form has substance — the third had previously run well behind A Likeable Rogue, and the fourth has since gone close in a bumper.

The step up in trip should suit. Zains Hope is a half-brother to several horses whose best form came over three miles. How he jumps on his first start over hurdles is an obvious unknown, and today may be more about education than result, but the market looks to be underrating what he showed on debut. Anything at 20/1 or bigger appeals.

Rhys' Selection 1: 12:41 Market Rasen: Zains Hope - 0.5pt Win

12:41 Market Rasen: Jack The Master - 0.5pt Win @ 40/1

Jack The Master is the second horse of interest, also switching to hurdles after a single bumper outing.

That came at Huntingdon in a junior bumper. He travelled nicely until the home bend, where the front two kicked clear and he came under pressure.

He couldn't match their speed and looked green when asked, yet kept responding well enough to take fourth.

He shaped like a long-term project rather than a sharp type that day. Henry Daly's runners are usually fit enough to do themselves justice in bumpers, but they tend to improve with time — and the move to obstacles makes Jack The Master an obvious candidate to follow that path.

Again, his jumping is an unknown on debut, but with that promising first run on the board, the market may be underestimating him. Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

Rhys' Selection 2: 12:41 Market Rasen: Jack The Master - 0.5pt Win

15:01 Market Rasen: Fireball Frenzy - 1pt Win @ 11/2

Fireball Frenzy starts out in handicap company here, in a staying mares' race that will be run over further than three miles once the extra yardage is added.

She looked a useful prospect when landing an Irish maiden point on her first start, and ran with credit in defeat on her second outing over hurdles at this track — but then spent more than two years off the course.

Her return came on testing ground at Ffos Las last month. The going was too soft for her, in my view, and she never travelled with any fluency from the outset.

First-time cheekpieces could sharpen her up and help her travel better. Market Rasen has some cut in the ground, but it will suit her far more than the Ffos Las surface did.

Whether whatever kept her sidelined for so long stops her building on that comeback run is a fair question. If it doesn't, she has a solid chance here. Any 9/2 or bigger appeals.

Rhys' Selection 3: 15:01 Market Rasen: Fireball Frenzy - 1pt Win

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15:15 Thurles: Kidam Roque - 0.5pt Win @ 100/1

Ozark's Walk has been backed early for his handicap debut, and given the quality of his bumper form that's no shock. He looks about the right price now. The one I'd argue the market has underestimated is a rival at a huge price.

Kidam Roque has shown precious little over hurdles on the whole, but his run at Galway two starts back was better than the beaten margin suggests.

He sat in the leading group that day and was still going well approaching the dip on the run to two out. A mistake at that flight — nodding on landing — knocked the stuffing out of him and he faded to finish well beaten.

A tongue-tie goes on for the first time, which may help him see out the race better, and the return to better ground is another plus.

The risk is that racing up with the pace flattered him that day. Even so, at this price in such a weak race I can't leave him unbacked. Any 40/1 or bigger appeals.

Rhys' Selection 4: 15:15 Thurles: Kidam Roque - 0.5pt Win

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